Librarian Looking for Work: A Swing Trader's Blog

Wilshire 5000 and a new upside target

2010-03-11T20:22:00.001-08:00

Ok, so I sold those X puts for a substantial loss, but I am glad for the lesson learned. I was getting really cocky after beat the S&P by a solid 7% in February, and probably needed to be taken down a peg - so far in March, I am deeply in the red, and even more deeply humbled.

For now let's look at the Wilshire 5000. The Wilshire 5000 is a basket of... you guessed it, 5000 stocks. I feel it better represents the market as a whole, and the lines to both the upside and downside are a lot smoother than everything except the Russel 2000. However, the Russel 2000 only follows smallcaps, and that's way too exclusive to get real market breadth.

Here's my new target for the Wilshire 5000.

This brings us back to the point on the Wilshire that started it all... that fateful September when Lehman collapsed. This would effectively erase the nightmare that was the financial collapse. Is that a good thing for markets? I'm not entirely sure, but at any rate if the Wilshire @12500 doesn't at least pullback and retest support, I'd be pretty surprised. I'd like to go long again, but I honestly need to see valuations that make sense. From a technical and fundamental perspective, this market frankly sucks balls. Traders are just chasing the liquidity granted by the Fed, which is all well and good, but is just hard to play for folks like me.

Anyways,... I want to keep updating the blog, but I am going to be a lot more passive about trading until these two weeks (approximately) pass me by.

US Steel Corp - and Deprogramming my Bias

2010-03-10T17:03:00.001-08:00

I grew up listening to the trading exploits of my father, an elliot wave counting permabear. He would spend hours reading me the Wall Street Journal, and telling me that at some point, a huge corrective wave would come in and blow everyone out of the water. That was his thing, that's how he made his bacon - or lost it in some cases. When I started trading, all I could see were potential 5 waves down, or ending diagnals that would soon thrust themselves into the hearts of blood-sucking bulls.... Well I started trading in May 2009.... the fact I still have my trading account, and that it is bigger than when I started is really amazing.

However, it's time to become my own man... my own trader, and my own analyst. These old bearish habits have cost me a lot of money (well, not cost me in real dollars, but ... think of it as opportunity costs). My attitude needs to change... my outlook, discipline, and objectivity need refining.

At any rate, one stock I've loved both long and short for the past few months has been US Steel Corp. I've been as objective on it as any trader can be. I liked it at 35, loathed it at 66, loved it again at 43, and am now again giving it the cold shoulder.

Here's why:

I'll be totally honest. I bought put contracts on X... waaay too early; in the 58 dollar range to be precise. I have paid dearly for jumping the gun, but being in a day early and a dollar deep seems to be my Modus Operandi, but I very seldom ever am on the wrong side of trades like this, so the bile I'm tasting is probably only temporary. However, March on the whole hasn't been too good to me for trading. I don't see many long positions I like at all - I made a nice trade in going long on BNS, and another going long on STT, but otherwise it's just been a small string of small losses from being stopped out on the short side.

Now, remember... I want to stop being a bear, but I honestly can't see many trades I like in the stocks I follow.

I hope that after the 'three-star doji' day on the Dow, that it might finally take a break so that I can go long and practice being a bull - I'd also like to get myself out of this dreadful hole I am in with X - hopefully my intuition doesn't fail me this time.

SPX looks toppy - but...

2010-01-20T21:59:00.001-08:00

Unlike the DOW, which was unable to penetrate the trend line from the September top of 2008, the S&P 500, peaked its head above in the last few trading days only to retreat back under the line today (Wednesday).

Divergences show continued lack of buying into equities, and general profit taking that there isn't huge institutional buying/government buying.

My concern is that despite all these bearish warning signs, that indeed the line WAS violated, and also that it seems to be pretty common knowledge in the finance blogosphere that the government is attempting to hold up this market ala Atlas and the globe.

How much longer could it last? Well if the MXI (Global Materials index) is any indicator... not long. Materials bottomed 5 months before the rest of the market, and also has topped the first (I still stand by the materials top).

That being said, although there is weakness in both JXI and IXC (the utilities and energy indexes respectively) There is no absolute death blow landed on either of these groups. For example, the IXC has seen slippage below its uptrending line before, and has come back to perform quite well over that line. The JXI looks a little weaker, but unlike Materials being the first to top/bottom, JXI (the utilities) always seems to be last, and so I still think it may have a bit of a ways to go.

One additional interesting tidbit that I thought was worth mentioning is that every other market rally in the last 10 years hasn't lasted as long as this one. Some have come close, but 10 months without some sort of correction is basically unheard of. I am still sitting on my hands and just buying options here and there until things get settled.

DJIA chart!

2010-01-13T15:39:00.000-08:00

So, I took profits on my utilities, took profits on my DTO (short oil ETN), and also covered my Celanese Corp short. All of these moves were winners. :D The only position I have open left are my RIG puts. (which are in the red as of now, but I am still confident they will be in or near the money by the time they expire; FEB 20s).

Everyone has been looking for a correction, top, reversal, you name it in the market recently, and I would be lying if I said I wasn't looking for the same thing. However, I think the top in blue chips is in, small and midcaps might rally a little bit for options expiry, and that the materials sector (as already stated) is finished, and energy and utilities are close as well.

Here is a chart of the DJIA that I whipped up. Compare now with 2006. Compare the unemployment, earnings reports, trade levels, budget deficits, the whole nine yards then, with what we have now. DOW 10700 was a huge level of resistance, and subsequently support and eventually became the springboard into what would become the finance and bubble mania. Also on this weekly chart for the first time we have negative divergence on the charts, and are in bubble type levels of being overbought. Even if we don't have what Elliot Wavers are hyping to be P3, we are having a correction. We haven't had one for a long time, and we're due. Really, really... over.. due.

Edison International

2010-01-10T11:17:00.000-08:00

Edison International (EIX)

As mentioned in my last post, I am bearish on the materials sector (especially chemicals), neutral on energy, and decidedly bullish on utilities (at least relative to the other sectors I analyze). This chart of all the utilities I have scanned through is my favourite. Clear trading channel starting from the March lows, positive divergence on the daily chart, just above the 50 SMA, (which will hopefully provide support), and also the yearly chart shows immense support at $34 a share. EIX is one of those plays that I hope to buy in to, make a run, and then just hold on to free shares instead of taking profits fully. It has a nice dividend yield, and those are the kinds of things I like to just sit on and wait to enjoy for a later date.

Materials top?

2010-01-08T15:25:00.000-08:00

Hello!

Other than the Canadian dollar chart below, I have been on hiatus for a long time. Since my previous post in June/July during the supposed H&S (which was the end of Wave 2 of 5? or B or A-C), ended in a little embarrassment for me, I took time off the re-evaluate my trading strategy.

In that time I decided I would use inter-market analysis more, and also cut down on the amount of charts I followed. I felt that the Materials, Energy, and Utilities industries appealed to me the most, and so since that fateful July... month... I have not ventured out of that comfort zone (except for a few extreme cases). Because of the sectors I look at, I spend a lot of time looking at the MXI, JXI, and IXC indexes, as well as oil, precious metals, base metals, and natural gas prices. Additionally, I watch the AUD/USD and USD/CAD relationships a lot as well.

Well, Materials has been my favourite sector since I trimmed down to 3, but I became bearish as of Thursday, which was yesterday. I shorted (CE) Celanese Corporation at 34.55 (with some success so far), (SSRI) Silver Standard Resources Inc at 27.76 (with no success thus far), and an old favourite long of mine, (PCX) Pacific Coal Corporation, at 19.52 with what I will call a kick to the head.

1 out of 3 isn't very good. However, looking at the chart I provided, and the overbought levels of the CAD and AUD against the USD, you could understand why I don't like the materials sector. Time will tell (probably by next friday) whether I am right or not, but I honestly feel that China is sending a message with their short-term T-Bill interest rate hike, and are also knee deep in it, because they're buying so much from Australia and South America with brutally unfavourable interest rates.

Anyways, there is some fundamental and technical reasons for my bearishness on the sector - so I have gone short, (and gone long in Utilities).

Thanks for reading!

CDN

2010-01-06T16:54:00.000-08:00

I am currently holding a short position in a spot oil ETN and am getting crushed. Here was the reason for my move. If I am missing anything, please illuminate me so I can get the hell out while I still have some money to trade with. The only think I can even imagine going awry is a further CDN breakout leading into an upside down head and shoulders and officially decimating my short and easily sending oil to $200/barrel.

Sorry for the extended break -

2009-08-13T21:08:00.000-07:00

I have taken a somewhat reserved stance to trading lately and have only been flipping quick trades here in there, but I have mostly been reading more information on how to make my trading experiences more profitable.

Here are the names of two books that I am in the middle of reading:

Technical Analysis of Stock Trend s by Robert D. Edwards

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison

Both are great reads for what I want to accomplish, which is profit making in swing-trading (ie. taking advantage of 2-week to one month long cyclical moves in markets.

So doing more reading and less trading has curbed profit taking in the last while, but I believe (and I am sure you do too), that in the long run. This is a good move.

Scary tiiiiimmmeeee! 85% cash!

2009-07-02T21:48:00.000-07:00

Ok, so I was messing around this the S&P 6-month chart today, and came up with what you're looking at.

I have never drafted a chart that looks so damned frightening.

Ichimoku resistance and short-term resistance levels in the 980s are coming up.

Head and shoulders just resolved.

I believe this could really crap out... so to usher in this potentially bearish move, I went into mostly cash, and will be day trading bearish ETFs for the next while.

Good luck to everyone, and I hope I'm wrong! (Not really).

P.S. Tenkan crossed Kijun from above to below... which is also an additional bearish indicator.

Librarian: Found Work

2009-06-24T15:39:00.000-07:00

At least temporarly, I am now employed:

Someone has been following my Stocktweets through Stocktwits and has offered me employment in the form of commission based portfolio management.

I am given a lump some of money to take care of for the contractual length of six months - starting July 1st and ending December 31st. I keep a percentage of the profits earned, and if the returns are better than 20%, I will be extended beyond that point.

I look forward to the challenge, and hope that I become a better trader because of it.

On the Day Trading front, I have been doing pretty well these last three days after taking a pummeling last week - and I think it's safe to say that I have managed this retracement well (knowing it would come, just not so furiouisly), and believe that I am well equipped to take advantage of this reconcilliation period.

I played Las Vegas Sands LVS and Patriot Coal PCX today, as well as added to my Discovery Labs DSCO position. The market started strong today, but gains were pared after the fed announced the interest rate hold. However, despite the day ending basically even, I made a killing - and my long term position in Patriot looks strong as it looks like it is gathering some steam and the technicals show it is extremely oversold relative to how overbought it was in the beginning of May.

http://i44.tinypic.com/2mq6ic8.jpg

PCX News: SVA homerun

2009-06-19T08:17:00.000-07:00

Ok, so Patriot Coal PCX has been on the downtrend for the last few days and is finally facing green.

I picked a target low of 6.57, and the low ended up being 6.44... so I was 13 cents off, but I think for a stock that's traded in an 8 and a half dollar range, that I did pretty good. However, I was concerned how quickly the fall came, (despite my knowing it was coming).

I received this e-mail from Patriot Coal investor relations:

Our management team and Board spent considerable time in making the decision to do the offering, weighing additional liquidity against dilution of existing shareholders. We are seeing signs that the economy and coal markets may be improving. The additional liquidity allows Patriot to fully participate in the upside. We have a number of newly-developed mines that will require relatively little capital expenditures to bring them on-line. We expect these mines to have a favorable cost structure. On the other hand, in the event the difficult economy is prolonged, proceeds from this offering give Patriot the flexibility to better handle the downside. Additionally, many investors were concerned about Patriot's liquidity and viability, and we believe the proceeds of this offering put those concerns to rest.

I understand your unhappiness with the dilution of your shares. As a reminder, our management team and Board collectively own more than 1 million shares, and representatives of ArcLight Capital, which holds 13 million shares, sit on our Board and participated in this decision. We are very cognizant of the impact of dilution on existing shareholders, but believe these proceeds better position Patriot.

Thank you for your interest in Patriot Coal.

First, I'd like to note, I wasn't really upset about share dilution, I know it's a necessary step to protect liquidity, I was just surprised it was done when the market was overbought and they were immenently turning into an energy bear run.

Anyways, PCX is trading up .40 cents today, and since I averaged fown to 7.06, I am confident in my chances of making a profit.

Edit: Close to the end of day, and just before sell-off, PCX is only up two dimes as energy prices have suffered. However, long term outlook still looks good as China will ramp up production and raise the demand for coal in late summer. http://tinyurl.com/kmnjd9

Additionally, I also played Sinovac SVA, a Swine Flu vaccine maker in China, and did well with that spec play.

Edit: I sold .03 cents of the high of the day, and it dropped back down below 4 dollars. So that was majorly smooooth.

All in all I feel pretty good about the investment decisions I have made up to this point, but... Callaway Golf ELY is still just murdering me. Dead money, as they say.

PCX: Chart and Guesswork

2009-06-17T16:03:00.001-07:00

So today I played a very volatile market that was trading up, down, left and right. I made a few small 10 cent trades on PCX, but decided to load up at 7.19.

In hindsight this proved to be a huge error. What I thought was going to be a bounce off a short-term trend line proved to be something bigger. If we go back all the way to the beginning of the move in April, we can see a trend-line of resistance that touches short-term bottoms and extends all the way to 6.57~ and if we take a Fibonacci retracement of the bottom of the move, to the top of the move in the short term, we hit that same level.

So, I think I might have to take a loss tomorrow (hopefully small) and wait for another re-entry point. We'll see how it plays out.

Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!

Late post: Bad Allergies = Red Nose & Redder S&P?

2009-06-16T19:34:00.000-07:00

Well, as predicted, the market has exhausted itself and there a fairly large retracement that has taken place of the last few days. That doesn't mean there isn't room for money to be made. I actually made a fair bit of change investing in DUG and FAZ, which are bearish ETFs that preform well, when their respective industries oil/energy for DUG, and financials for FAZ perform badly.

These gains aren't huge, however, as these leveraged ETFs (3x), have the potential to fly up and down all too quickly for the taste of the average investor. So I took small gains in both today and stepped away from the computer.

Discovery Laboratories DSCO made humongous gains on Monday, and I was finally able to dump the shares of what was my first ever trade at a profit after averaging down. That was a nice feeling. Granted, I should probably have been punished for "holding the bag" with DSCO, but this move looked pretty similar to every move made by DSCO in the past where they were rejected for FDA approval on their Surfaxin treatment. I knew at least one more was coming, but I guess I just got lucky that something happened earlier.

Aside from brutal allergies keeping me from wanting to update, I have also been absolutely enthralled by the Iranian election protests. I have always had a small crush on the country - the people are nice, the food is amazing, and the women are beautiful. The Iranian nation on a whole also seems grossly misunderstood on the international landscape, and I always find myself voting for the underdog.

Cheers!

June 9th : PCX payload, Callaway collapse, and uhhh... making copper on Continental?

2009-06-09T21:01:00.001-07:00

Well, I was running out of literary alliteration possibilities in my title, so think of copper as "pennies" seeing as my multiple trades with Continental Airlines CAL today yielded me all of 150 bucks minus commission (so more like 90).

Market finished even the second day in a row, as more and more .... neither bad nor good news comes out of the financial sector. Some TARP payments can be made back, some cannot! So this could of uncertainty hangs over our heads as it has the past few months, and the DJIA perfectly reflected that investor sentiment.

I did however, hit a massive homerun on one of my two favourite trading horses, Patriot Coal PCX today. The stock was trading in a a really clean bull flag, and was touching to new bottoms on the day when some share holder must have just puked. Whether it was a stop-loss order, or someone just had enough of seeing news lows, I was able to buy into PCX as 8.275 and then sell them for a huge profit later in the trading day. Hurray!

I got rid of most of my Cell Therapeutics position. I've decided I am not cut out for biotech stocks. There is just way too much guess work there. Technical analysis still speaks volumes about the trading patterns, but chart patterns and fundamentals do not - and that's just playing the game too blind for me. I am keeping a small position in CTIC with "free shares" that I'd accumulated along the way.

Callaway ELY crashed hard today falling an entire 18% on murmurings of share dilution and a cut dividend. Those are good reasons for a stock to drop, but the balance sheet says revenues at Callaway are still at $16 dollars/share, and again, just like Pulte, we are staring at a largely undervalued stock because of market uncertainty, and a little bit of bad news. The share dilution is actually being offered above the current price at $7.05, so I think I am in a pretty good spot to get my money back... (I bought in at 6.28, which I think was an amazing deal, but the stock proceeded lower to 5.92 for the low).

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

I'm thinking about investing in an Energy Transportation/Storage for natural gas, it's about time I invested in something with some kind of dividend!

Day 7: Screwed by Credit Suisse

2009-06-05T18:24:00.001-07:00

Sorry about the lack of update yesterday.

Ok, so my money making gem, Pulte PHM, was being as volatile as usual, and I made a few good trades on it today when news came out. This news from Credit Suisse upgraded PHM from a hold to a buy rating. I knew this was coming, but I am just heart-broken it happened so soon. I could have kept making a killing on Pulte everyday until the cows came home at 8.60 buys and 8.80 sells. Sadly, those days are over.

I bought some Patriot Coal PCX today to hold over night. It was trailing like dow today, and I expect it to make some rebound tomorrow, I actually feel I got it at a pretty attractive price all things considered - so a strong opening tomorrow will be more profits for me.

CTIC ended in the red another day, and I am a few cents away from being par with this stock, and I am beginning to get worried. I firmly believe in their product, but the FDA seems to have an interesting approach toward cancer therapy drugs, and I just think CTIC could just get screwed to send a message. At some point, if enough cancer drugs fail, maybe researchers just won't bother trying to produce them anymore, because it won't be viewed as profitable. If CTIC ever hits 2.30~ again in the next while, I'm selling out most of my position and I am just going to hold onto the "free shares".

That's my biggest worry.

I was shopping for stocks today to replace my dearly departed PHM, and my gaze landed on US Steel Corp X. On the next red day I come across, I will be buying in, because I believe a stock that is trading at a 5th of what it was last year at the beginning of the credit crisis, has some serious potential.

In work related news, I will be applying for librarian positions at Simon Frasier University in the coming week. Wish me luck!

Day 6:

2009-06-03T14:27:00.000-07:00

Hello!

So, if you look at my Twitter history, I called a retracement today! Go me! The Dow Jones was down 65 points, after hitting a low of 8560~ on the day.

So,... I got out of all my stuff yesterday, and thankfully I took those profits.

I did try to play Patriot Coal PCX and Pulte PHM, and that didn't work out for me today. I actually ended picking up both stocks around 8.70 for PHM and 8.38 for PCX respectively, but the downward push on the market continued until I got out just before close. So, yea.. I lost a bit, but I think it will continue down tomorrow and I should be able to find a solid re-entry point. I guess that's the thing about day-trading, I know if I held long, I'd get profits on both those stocks at those particular prices, but I need to keep capital free if I wanna make any money in the short term.

In other news, Cell Therapeutics CTIC has been up-and-down all this week and for the last month. I have a fairly large position in CTIC from 1.19. There has been a huge battle between the company PR and thestreet.com bio-pharma editorial guy, Adam Feuerstein.

I am really confident in CTIC and the product they have to offer. I did my due diligence and read the reports. Like any librarian we have to go through statistics, so I was even more sure that their product Pixantrone would go on to big things. Adam Feuerstein doesn't agree that CTIC is a huge money maker, and in that, I think he is correct - however, he is working his hardest to try and bankrupt a company that has made the greatest strides in the last year in regards to finally curing cancer. I understand he is a business man and it's not his job to be nice, but I am beginning to question his motives and his reporting objectivity. After his article tonight about CTIC's other drug OPAXIO (a drug that targets lung cancer), I had to write him a letter.

Here is what I wrote:

Hey, Adam.

I've been reading your articles about CTIC regularly, and although I appreciate someone humbling the pumpers, I do take issue with some what what you say, and how you're saying it.

You claim that you write the article as a businessman, as a person looking to illuminate others as the potential valuation of a stock, and how it might perform on the market.

Example, May 14th, 2009:

Your quote,

"Cell Therapeutics estimates that population to be about 5,300 patients in the United States and further forecasts 25% market penetration at peak. If the company prices pixantrone at $40,000 (again, a Cell Therapeutics estimate), peak sales pencil out to $53 million."

Obviously, you were even liberal with that number - the article itself is well written, is generally devoid of personal attacks, and you even give, PR guy Dan Eramian's response, the front page of your article.

However, as the weeks have gone by, your objectivity to the product is being put into question for good reason. Your duty to your readership to provide a well researched and unbiased piece is becoming jeopardized:

Your words,

"I haven't even addressed the efficacy of pixantrone, but there was little new information shed in today's presentation that wasn't previously disclosed by the company. An analysis of survival favored pixantrone-treated patients, but the result was nowhere close to being statistically significant, with a p value of 0.54. Statistical significance requires a p value of 0.05."

How can you even consider this fair and unbiased reporting when you focus on the only statistic in the entire Pixantrone study that can be deemed negative?

http://www.biotechnology-europe.com/news/news%20by%20company/Cell-Therapeutics/2009/01.06.2009%20Pixantrone%20Significantly%20Increases%20Complete%20Remissions,%20Overall%20Response%20Rates%20Frequency%20of%20Durable%20Remissions.html

Quote from the site:

" Intent to treat Analysis results per FDA agreed upon Statistical Analysis Plan
Significant Increase in Complete Remission Rates 20% vs. 5.7%; p=0.021
Significant Increase in Overall Response Rate 37.1% vs. 14.3%; p=0.003
Significant increase in percent of all patients whose response lasted greater than or equal to four months 25.7% vs. 8.6%; p=0.012
Significant Increase in Progression Free Survival 4.7 months vs. 2.6 months; p=0.007
Positive trend in Overall Survival even though data not fully mature with median 8.1 month vs. 6.9 month; p=0.544 "

You and I know both know that's old news, but if you're going to focus on that one statistic, the only non-statistically significant in the report, then you have to discard you argument about cardiac toxicity, because that is also a) currently statistically insignificant, and b) unfair because patients on Pixantrone have lived longer and had more chances to have cardio-toxicity show their ill effects.

Now unlike most, I actually think you write rather well, but I think you need to take a step away from CTIC, or at least re-evaluate how you present your arguments, because you're coming dangerously close to tabloid-level respectability in regards to your biases.

Yours,

Dennis Michailides, MLIS

If nothing else, I just hope this leads him to report more responsibly in the future. You can not like a company and its management, illuminate investors about potential pitfalls, and do so without coming across like your pushing a tabloid.

Anyways, more fun tomorrow!

P.S. It just occured to me I made a spelling error in the letter. I spelled 'response' without the necessary "s". Doh!

Day:... 5?

2009-06-02T13:18:00.000-07:00

Sorry, I missed a day! Monday was pretty hectic on the old market, things were really up and down, but I also went out to chill with a buddy right after the markets closed, so I didn't feel like I had time to update.

I didn't do much active trading today compared to yesterday or any of the days before, because the market is still rallying and according to RSI readings, everything is really overbought, so I am going to stand-pat until things settle.

The few moves I did make was a sale of China Precision Steel CPSL, Citigroup C, and the remaining shares I have of Pulte PHM.

All were gains over yesterday, except the C, which I sold right at the beginning of the day before it totally tanked. I think financial stocks look really weak overall, and I was actually able to make a few bucks playing FAZ the other day.

I mean, what is all this excitement in financials based on? The fact they aren't going bankrupt? That's the new bar? I think I'll steer clear a while.

Still holding:

CTIC

DSCO

Now holding:

HNAB

So far this has been my worst day as far as trading goes. I haven't taken any real losses, but all my remaining holdings are down on the day. However, I think that's only the beginning. Stocks are overbought on the whole, and I have a feeling I am going to be holding what I have left for the long-haul.

In library related news, I didn't get the Seattle Public Library job. :( That's really disappointing for me, but I guess I just didn't have that "IT" factor for an adult services position. That's fine, I definitely have my short-comings - and I'll keep doing my best to improve on 'em.

On to the next job app.!

Day 3: No profits taken; but big jump in the portfolio.

2009-05-29T09:42:00.000-07:00

Ok, so the Nasdaq and the Dow are both guilty of being really flaky today. There was really no big movement of which to speak. I bought PHM at 8.69 and sold at 8.70 because I wanted to pick it up at around the low it kept bumping off of at 8.62. HOWEVER, just my luck, as it was dancing between that trading window of 8.62 and 8.73, it finally broke through that resistance and is now averaging 10 cents higher. On a good note, I was right about PHM, it is recovering, and it is an undervalued stock.

Screw it!

Bought some AA at 9.13, it's trading at around 9.10 now. We'll see what happens there, generally been an off day, but I haven't lost/gained anything except for a 10 cent gain overnight with ESLR. So I've basically made like... $20 today. Super...

Ok, but on to the big news! CTIC.... is up 20 cents... This my biggest position in any stock, and makes my portfolio look amazing! :D Hopefully this is the precursor to some big news at the ASCO conference on Monday/Tuesday where CTIC will be presenting about their new cancer fighting drugs.

No library news today. However, I should be hearing back from Seattle Public Library by 4 o'clock.

Day 2: Taking advantage of the battered home building market

2009-05-28T12:54:00.000-07:00

Today was pretty successful for me. :)

Here's a review of my transactions:

Sell: PHM 2,000 8.75 17,490.01
Buy: PHM 2,000 8.63 17,269.99

Sell: DHI 1,000 8.75 8,740.01
Buy: DHI 1,000 8.628 8,637.99

Sell: AA 1,000 9.20 9,190.01
Buy: AA 1,000 9.075 9,084.99

Sell: PHM 1,000 8.66 8,650.01
Buy: PHM 1,000 8.545 8,554.99

Also, include one quick trade of BAC for an extra 12 cents, and that was my trading day on the whole.

So,... why, (except for BAC) did I dabble in housing and construction materials on a day the sector was absolutely battered today? Well, I'll tell you!

In the case of PHM and DHI, the choice was obvious. Out of all the stocks in home construction, these two performed worst on the day, and suffered upward to 10% losses at their absolute daily lows.

But look at the balance sheets of these two stocks, especially Pulte (PHM)! The revenue per share of these two stocks are 16 and 21 dollars respectively, and they're both trading under 9? That doesn't make any sense, especially since they're debt totals are fairly manageable. There is absolutely no way I wasn't going to play those for the day, as if it were on any other day except for one where new housing data bad news was released, they'd both be flying, PHM especially.

AA was another obvious choice, because aluminum is a pretty sympathetic sector to construction. It went even lower than my entry point, but it's just such a stable stock that intuition really just took over, and I knew it would eventually get some returns on the day. Additionally, technical analysis indicators show that over the long-term, Alcoa looks strong. It's oversold, and trading over its MACD. There was really very little room to lose, so I gambled, and won!

So on the day, including a quick trade on BAC, I finished up almost 700 dollars.

Also, returning to that post before about PCX. I did make money, but I exited before my target, because I paniced. Big mistake, because I could have held on for at least another half-dollar. Either way, it was a profit. :D

Long Holdings Update:

AFT (added to position).

Work update:

As far as my job search goes... still not so good. I really need to get that letter out to the University of Calgary. I think I'd be a good fit there - but it's so hard to motivate myself to write cover letters when I could be making money, you know... now...

Day 1: Out ESLR, In PCX!

2009-05-27T07:58:00.000-07:00

Day 1:

Was in ESLR at 1.76 out at 1.84. ESLR is my milk money, I always buy in the mid-70s and sell in the mid-80s, or in pre-dilution terms, I bought in the low 2s, and sold in the high 2.20s low 2.30s. It’s such a safe stock, with such terrible revenue prospects and management. What keeps it from going belly-up, is its research and development. Evergreen has some amazing low-cost patents, and if it can finally get its act together – one day it’ll be huge. Even today after I got out, it went up about 0.07 cents to 1.91 and has been sitting there all day.

Bought PFE 500 shares 14.87 – sold at 14.91. Was initially going to play this for the day, but when I heard the PCX buyout rumour, I jumped ship after I covered my commission fees.

PCX 9.125 1000 on B/O rumours, need for clean coal – PCX also has amazing revenue per/share (over 27$). Cash flow seems, a bit of a problem, but hopefully it doesn’t prove too much an issue in the long run. Morgan Stanley recently downgraded PCX, but unless it’s from Goldman, I don’t pay too much attention to upgrades and downgrades. The last time Goldman Sachs did have an opinion on PCX, it was an upgrade from “neutral” to “attractive”. PCX is trading above its MACD, meaning it’s broke above its moving average, and is trading below par on its RSI, meaning it’s undersold.

So PCX looks good to me, I would be perfectly happy with a 30 cent gain. I’ll let everyone know tomorrow how this goes.

I am also trading/holding:

As far as the job hunt goes, I still haven’t heard back from Seattle Public Library, but it still isn’t Friday, so I haven’t given up hope, yet! Sticking to my particularly stubborn ways, the only other job prospect available that suits me is the one over at the University of Calgary for a business librarian position. I’ll churn out a cover letter for that today and let you know how it goes.

Reason for blogging....

2009-05-26T22:50:00.000-07:00

I've tried blogs out before, but I've never really felt like I have had a good enough reason to maintain them, week after weel. Moreover, I don't really think anyone would have been interested in what I had to say on my blog, as my friends already talk to me about whatever it is I'm thinking, and anonymous readers don't really care what I'm thinking unless there is something unique and interesting to offer. I guess all ideas have their unique qualities, but you know what I mean.

So here's my idea..

I want to keep this blog for both myself and also for any interested readers, whether librarian or swing trader. This blog will be a good way for me to keep notes about my trades, why I made them, and for later reference use.

I hope I stick to it! It could be fun.