Wednesday, January 13, 2010

DJIA chart!



So, I took profits on my utilities, took profits on my DTO (short oil ETN), and also covered my Celanese Corp short. All of these moves were winners. :D The only position I have open left are my RIG puts. (which are in the red as of now, but I am still confident they will be in or near the money by the time they expire; FEB 20s).

Everyone has been looking for a correction, top, reversal, you name it in the market recently, and I would be lying if I said I wasn't looking for the same thing. However, I think the top in blue chips is in, small and midcaps might rally a little bit for options expiry, and that the materials sector (as already stated) is finished, and energy and utilities are close as well.

Here is a chart of the DJIA that I whipped up. Compare now with 2006. Compare the unemployment, earnings reports, trade levels, budget deficits, the whole nine yards then, with what we have now. DOW 10700 was a huge level of resistance, and subsequently support and eventually became the springboard into what would become the finance and bubble mania. Also on this weekly chart for the first time we have negative divergence on the charts, and are in bubble type levels of being overbought. Even if we don't have what Elliot Wavers are hyping to be P3, we are having a correction. We haven't had one for a long time, and we're due. Really, really... over.. due.




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